Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.372376 0.429644 0.491782 0.564085 0.645767 0.735049 0.839884
2025-06-22 0.275758 0.347422 0.431284 0.536194 0.663408 0.812129 0.998576
2025-06-29 0.211805 0.290159 0.388618 0.520348 0.690749 0.902371 1.183524
2025-07-06 0.162643 0.242070 0.349095 0.501887 0.712059 0.988290 1.375530
2025-07-13 0.134366 0.216412 0.334492 0.513545 0.774109 1.134573 1.664748
2025-07-20 0.108009 0.188337 0.311779 0.510390 0.815627 1.259115 1.941740
2025-07-27 0.089800 0.169066 0.298764 0.519444 0.876285 1.418698 2.288917
2025-08-03 0.075435 0.153083 0.288091 0.530426 0.941563 1.593441 2.680191
2025-08-10 0.059060 0.129775 0.260828 0.509475 0.952595 1.685878 2.956379
2025-08-17 0.045245 0.107870 0.231694 0.480045 0.944721 1.746562 3.188810
2025-08-24 0.036474 0.093957 0.214737 0.469784 0.968757 1.863116 3.526838
2025-08-31 0.029552 0.082206 0.199650 0.460366 0.992756 1.982126 3.882017
2025-09-07 0.025462 0.076262 0.196198 0.475276 1.068360 2.207913 4.460881
2025-09-14 0.019831 0.064687 0.177693 0.454983 1.071113 2.299464 4.806972
2025-09-21 0.015872 0.056260 0.164573 0.444113 1.091823 2.428350 5.238710
2025-09-28 0.012578 0.048547 0.151307 0.430254 1.103956 2.541851 5.653888
2025-10-05 0.010889 0.045232 0.148794 0.442161 1.175682 2.785716 6.354212
2025-10-12 0.009040 0.040647 0.141610 0.440782 1.216451 2.969251 6.950820
2025-10-19 0.007792 0.037724 0.138549 0.449833 1.283811 3.218238 7.709853
2025-10-26 0.006768 0.035229 0.136174 0.460386 1.356620 3.487575 8.539008
2025-11-02 0.005341 0.030363 0.124782 0.442621 1.354261 3.585606 9.004060
2025-11-09 0.004078 0.025500 0.111839 0.417199 1.327362 3.622869 9.336968
2025-11-16 0.003310 0.022549 0.104782 0.408550 1.344842 3.768359 9.931271